A Year of Democracy?
by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
If elections make democracy, then 2024 will be the most democratic in world history. 70 countries and nearly half the population of the globe will go to the polls in 2024. But does that mean we are at peak-democracy? Hardly.
In many countries the result is predictable. In some of them more of the same. In some, the results will be manipulated. And in others, ignored. But in others there will be choice, contest, argument and surprises. Given the countries involved, the results will reshape our world.
In the United States, Britain, India, Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia and many more, the outcomes, whether open or closed, will affect us all. It will be a year of momentum, contested opinions and serious and viral misinformation.
Recent years have reminded us of the turbulence we live with. Take just three big surprises which affected us seriously: Brexit, the invasion of Ukraine and the COVID19 pandemic. They shook-up our ordered world. And as we reeled from them, along came October 7 leaving the Middle East in flames with the heat affecting us all.
My prediction for the New Year is this: Prepare for more surprises.
The last four decades were marked with surprise. The Berlin Wall, 9/11, Arab Spring, ISIS, Iraq, a separatist referendum in Scotland and Brexit. They all came from left field, catching us off-guard. Get ready for the next shock.
The speed of change will combine with turbulence to amplify the vulnerabilities - local and international, old and new - we face. AI will bring complications and autonomous vehicles, and there’s cyber warfare, advances in medicine, transport and communications. They will overwhelm those who cannot understand - and cope. Our national infrastructure (phones, water, power) is on a knife edge and can be compromised by those with the motivation and the patience.
Geopolitically the world is in turmoil. Leon Trotsky, and I don’t quote him often, said “You might not be interested in this war but this war is interested in you.” He might well have been writing about his own nation’s invasion of Ukraine. The fate of Ukraine and with it the fate of Vladimir Putin will shape the world we leave to our grandchildren.
Putin is not winning at the moment but then neither is Ukraine. Putin aimed to take over his neighbour in three days, to stop the onward march of NATO, and leave a divided Europe estranged from the US. In reality he has achieved none of them. He hasn’t even taken all the land in the Donbas that he had announced as annexed.
He has squandered thousands of young lives, wasted billions of roubles and set back his economy for decades to come. He is a pariah in most parts of the world and although China takes his oil at discounted prices they are only allies of convenience. That represents a failure of epic proportions.
He has to lose. On that failure depends the safety and security of the free West. The EU has with NATO, proved more united and nimble than many (including Putin) had expected. That may turn out to be a good omen given the threat of the return of Donald Trump in the US. Europe may have to do a lot more in its own defence if the US becomes less willing to engage internationally.
China shows less noticeable turmoil but the consequences of what it does or doesn’t do are no less profound. In every part of the world her diplomats and business leaders are advancing China’s interests. The Belt and Road Initiative has its tentacles throughout the Global South and Beijing’s tacit support for Putin’s adventure in Ukraine helps keep the West on edge. Taiwan is a looming issue and its election in 2024 may spark new tensions. The Indo-Pacific region has great economic prospects - but also creates novel security implications for the world.
NATO will celebrate its 75th Anniversary in Washington in July. Given the number of crises alive in the world today - and the likelihood of more surprises - the Alliance of 31 (soon to be 32) free nations covering a billion people is more important than it ever was. Only NATO has the unity, the resilience and the capability to maintain the peace in a troubled world. It’s well worth celebrating.
NATO stands proud but worried. Top of its concerns is how the Global South, once called the Non-aligned group of nations, cannot understand that the invasion of Ukraine by a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council is a threat to them and to international stability. They have to be woken up.
The priority of the July Summit and of the Leaders of the NATO nations is to make the case for a safer more democratic world. It will be a hard task but there have been huge challenges successfully met in the past. It is again time for historic and decisive action.
And as NATO faces new challenges so too does the world of business. As never before, companies are finding themselves victims of the volatility of events and the velocity of change.
Supply chains cannot be taken for granted, stable political environments cannot be assumed, security threats affect most decisions and geopolitics drives lawmaking and regulations which are often inconvenient to doing good business.
In today’s fragile and turbulent world, understanding the geo-political context companies operate within matters more than ever. Waiting until events hit is a losing strategy. The key to success is knowing what is happening and having the information and strategies to respond.
Lord Robertson is a Senior Adviser at 5654 & Company, a former UK Defence Secretary and former NATO Secretary General.