Get Ready for Change

It has been four years since Boris Johnson won the 2019 General Election, landing the biggest Conservative majority since 1987. It has also been a politically exciting four months since 5654 & Company published The Road to Election back in September.

Since then the main UK political parties have held their Party Conferences; three by-elections have been held with notable swings; Parliament was prorogued; and the King opened a new Parliamentary Session – his first and the last of this Parliament; the Prime Minister sacked his Home Secretary and reshuffled his government with a former Prime Minister returning to government as Foreign Secretary – the first sitting in the House of Lords in over 40 years; the Government published its Autumn Statement; and Sir Keir Starmer also reshuffled his front bench and suffered his first major rebellion over Gaza; a recall petition was successful in Wellingborough which will lead to another by-election in the early next year…

What has changed?

Back in September, our exclusive polling indicated that 14% of respondents were undecided about who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow. At that time, Conservative strategists had been looking to their forthcoming Party Conference to “relaunch Rishi”. They believed the King’s Speech and the new legislative programme, the government reshuffle and the financial Autumn Statement, taken together would be ‘key moments’ to seize the agenda, change the narrative and turn the party’s fortunes around.

However, four months on - rather than any of the parties persuading them or ‘sealing the deal’ – evidence suggests that the number of ‘undecideds’ remains significant.

At the same time, recent by-election results have indicated significant numbers of Conservative voters are choosing to stay at home rather than support their party.

Time is ticking for the Conservatives…

It has now been over two years since the Conservatives last led Labour in any published poll.

By the beginning of September, 75% of people told pollsters More in Common that it was time for a change in government – a figure that included a striking 47% of those who voted Conservative in 2019.

In November, polling by YouGov indicated that only four in ten (40%) of 2019 Conservative voters are still planning to vote Conservative. One in eight (12%) said they intend to vote for Reform UK, 11% said they will vote Labour, 7% would not vote, and 23% tell us they “don’t know” how they will vote.

By December, a YouGov survey for The Times, indicated that only 6% of voters thought the Conservatives had done a good job in government, and only 15% of people thought the Tories are fit for office, with half of voters saying they would never vote Conservative under any circumstances.

But the public have doubts about Labour

Reflecting widespread disillusionment with both main political parties, the YouGov Times poll also found that 43% of voters do not think Labour is fit for office either, while another 29% say they are ‘unsure’ about the Party.

5654 & Company were keen to explore the reasons Conservative voters were switching, remain undecided or may well stay at home. And we wanted to explore the public’s reservations with Labour. So, in the second week of December, to mark exactly four years since the 2019 general election, we held a series of focus groups. We chose four areas which represent the places that are likely to determine the direction of our country. Their comments - included in this report - make sobering reading for politicians.

And they are vital reading for businesses and organisations as you analyse potential scenarios at the general election and prepare for the next government.

Where are we heading?

Backing the evidence from the national polling, our groups show clear disenchantment with the government among previous Conservative voters – many of whom admitted they would not vote Conservative next year, and many of whom openly admitted they were unlikely to vote at all.

Across our groups we heard a consistent message that the country was going in the wrong direction. Our participants say it is “time for a change” – but at the same time, our groups reveal that enthusiasm for Labour is often tepid.

There was a weariness with all politicians - government and opposition. There was little patience for politicians who “are all the same”, and who “will say anything” but then break their promises. There is an expectation that whoever is in charge will most probably fail to deliver.

In September we said Sir Keir Starmer was likely to be leader of a Labour-led Government. But we warned this control over the government and Parliament may be limited if he won a small majority - and that a new coalition government may even be possible. Now, based on recent by-election results, up-to-date national polling and our exclusive focus group findings, a meaningful Labour majority – i.e. greater than 30 MPs – is now the more likely outcome. This is because a significant number of Conservative voters remain undecided or have resigned themselves to staying at home on polling day.

This result would change the dynamic of the next government and Parliament – giving Keir Starmer a clearer mandate to govern, greater control over his MPs in Parliament and leaving him less reliant on the smaller parties at Westminster to prosecute his agenda.

The clock is ticking for Rishi Sunak to give his voters a reason to turn up; and for Sir Keir Starmer to seal the deal by persuading both Conservative waverers to join him and disaffected Tories to stay home.

Download our new report: Time for Change