Hope Index 2024
Since we founded 5654 & Company in March 2020 we've been studying hope. Why? Because hope, or optimism, is important to the success of any economy. And in recent years we've seen across the research we've conducted for our clients that there is too often a sense among the public that the UK is without hope, a country in decline and on the wrong course.
Our early work found hope on the rise. Between December 2020 and August 2021, the public said they felt more hopeful for the year ahead - driven by the vaccine roll out and a belief there was light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.
As we came out of the pandemic and into a cost-of-living crisis driven by increased debt, soaring energy bills and rising food prices thanks to the war in Ukraine the public told us they were feeling less hopeful, and pessimism was growing. Chaos, confusion and short termism in our politics did nothing to help quell the sense the UK was on the wrong track.
Today, our latest research shows hope is once again on the rise. In fact, levels of hope are higher than they have been since we started polling in 2020.
This is, however, cautious optimism. Looking at the data in more detail shows the public are more hopeful about their personal circumstances. When asked how they see the next 12 months for their community or the country they become increasingly less hopeful. And, in general, people are more likely to say they are 'fairly hopeful' than 'very hopeful'.
It is perhaps hardly surprising that levels of hope for the year ahead are higher at the time of an election (the field work started the day the general election was called). And especially today when we are living through a 'change' election. But it is notable that those saying they will vote Labour on 4 July are net less optimistic than those who say they will vote Conservative. And wider research showing the lowest recorded levels of trust in politicians - and that while Labour may be the favourites to win the election, there is no real enthusiasm for Keir Starmer or his Labour project - indicates there is something else at play.
Given hope or a sense of optimism is a powerful driver of the economy and society, building on the green shoots of hope we see in this research is important as the country moves on following the election.
The way the next Government acts and behaves will have a significant impact on whether hope continues to rise or falls. Our research shows the top four issues which can contribute to hope are: Improving the NHS; help with the cost-of-living; economic growth; and, tackling immigration. It's no surprise all four loom large in the election campaign.
But there is a role for business here too. Help to tackle the cost-of-living and get the economy growing are issues where business has just as great a role to play as government. And as we will show in further research to be published over the coming weeks - the public not only believe this is the case but think there is a gap in these areas between the role companies should play and they role they are playing.
What's more, if the gap between personal hope and hope for communities and the country is allowed to grow this risks further deteriorating trust in business and support for companies to operate in a way that takes the country forward. Why should we support any person or organisation in a position of power if we don't believe they will do anything to help me?
This isn't an argument for 'sugar coating it'. The UK faces many serious challenges to return to growth and deliver for people and communities across the country. But where there are reasons to be cheerful and believe progress is possible, they should be highlighted and celebrated. Because moods are contagious. Perhaps the public are looking for reasons to believe better days lie ahead. Being out of step with this mood risks damaging trust in business and governments further and hindering our ability to get back on the right track.