Labour’s Year?
by Billie Barnes
At the start of 2023, 5654 said this about Keir Starmer’s year ahead:
“Starmer has a difficult balancing act to strike this year. He must set out a detailed policy platform, but not too early that the best ideas are stolen by the Government. He has to look and sound radical to regain lost support in the north of England and Scotland, but he can’t allow himself to be painted as just another big spending Labour politician. And he has to appear credible and competent, but not allow the label of “boring” to become a problem.”
Over the past twelve months, Starmer appears to have struck this balance correctly. He has maintained his roughly twenty point lead in the polls against sustained attacks from the Conservatives, solidified a lead in the red wall, seen the start of a recovery in Scotland, and hit home his message on fiscal discipline repeatedly.
Arguably, the most significant shift was seen in Scotland with the SNP’s implosion. The shock resignation and political demise of Nicola Sturgeon, and the ongoing disintegration of the SNP’s stranglehold on Scottish politics has left a significant practical and psychological impact on Labour’s ability to win. The result in Rutherglen - as with those in Selby and Mid Bedfordshire - exceeded all expectations and has raised hopes inside Labour that the UK is ready for change.
In total, Labour has won in five of seven by-elections it fought this year. The party expects to win further by-elections during 2024. The extent to which Starmer can push into SNP territory and ‘safe’ Conservative territory in a General Election will likely determine whether he leads a minority Government or a Labour Government with a sizeable majority.
One suggestion we made last year that has not quite come to fruition is that Labour would lay out a detailed policy platform. While Labour conference passed a document containing ample policy detail, the policy coming from conference floor was relatively thin. While Labour have a lot to work with from their policy document, it’s clear they are still maintaining the ‘ming vase’ strategy when it comes to laying out their manifesto. The party would rather hold policy back and emphasise fiscal discipline than put forward too much detail.
Can this last? We think probably not. If the next election is going to be fought on the age old territory of ‘change’ versus ‘more of the same’, Starmer has to be careful to actually lean into change and show people what he will do. The risk of not doing so is poor turnout (particularly in those seats Labour needs to win back, including in the red wall and Scotland) and narrow misses in many seats.
January 2021, 2022 and 2023 saw Starmer set out his stall for the year ahead. So, in January will we see this again? If his strategists deem it wise, he must avoid the inevitable attack line of “relaunch” - but a risk worth taking, when you’re aiming headlong into a General Election campaign year.
Labour sources tell us that the party is now preparing to start a general election campaign in the first week of March, with a General Election on May 2nd. The final date is not in Labour’s gift but expect Starmer to start the year with a clear call for an election - putting the pressure on Rishi Sunak and setting up a narrative that the PM will have ‘bottled it’ if he opts to go later in the year.
February is likely to see the start of access talks. The Transition to Government team, headed by Sue Gray and her deputy Helene Reardon-Bond, are already working on the nuts and bolts of the “day one” plans for a Labour Government. On her arrival into Starmer’s office, Gray put the brakes on Labour going for access talks immediately, preferring to spend time interrogating shadow cabinet plans. When the party does start talking to the civil service, it will be with well-developed plans for its first year in Government.
With so much uncertainty about the timing of the General Election, the months after May are difficult to predict. If Sunak opts for a later election, Labour expects the Conservatives to suffer heavy losses in the local elections in May. In many respects, punching the bruise and watching more Tory-infighting in the months leading up to an autumn election would be ideal for Labour, but privately they believe this is why Sunak may opt for a May election.
Regardless of when the election is called, a Labour-led Government next year is increasingly likely. That means for those with an interest, the months ahead present a crucial final chance to engage with the Labour Party before it takes power.
And focus on building relationships with PPCs and reengaging existing Labour MPs. If Labour do win the election it will be with the biggest influx of new MPs that the UK has seen since the war. Parliament is about to change significantly and the biggest investment you can make now is in time getting to know the people who could be making decisions for years to come.
Billie Barnes is an Associate Director at 5654 & Company, and a former Labour Party adviser for over a decade.