The Economy Takes Over
Like the changing of the seasons, a new public narrative replaces what came before in no time. This research suggests that moment has arrived.
While the focus of the past year has been on the health impacts of the pandemic, for the first time the public are now more concerned about its economic impacts. The public are more concerned about the economic consequences of the pandemic this year. And levels of concern only grow when they are asked to think about the next five years.
Economic concerns outweigh health impacts for the first time since the pandemic began
From what you know, which of the following will be the greater problem facing this country over the next 12 months?
From what you know, which of the following will be the greater problem facing this country over the next 5 years?
Coming days before the Budget, these findings reinforce the tests facing the Chancellor.
We have long maintained the next general election is more likely to be fought over the Government’s progress to deliver its central promise to level-up than its handling of the pandemic. This research reinforces that will be the case and that this Budget will mark the first moment in the Government’s effort to win that fight.
In that context, the Chancellor has some findings on his side. Despite overall concerns about the economy and the risk of unemployment, most people report they are increasingly optimistic about their personal financial circumstances.
Confidence about ‘my personal finances’ is improving
Thinking about your personal finances generally, before the ‘lockdown’ restrictions were introduced, do generally feel more positive or more negative about your personal finances now, or do you feel the same?
How concerned or optimistic are you about the following issues when you think about the coming year?
At the same time, there are signs the public are beginning to feel more sympathetic towards the Government’s handling of the pandemic, and even proud as the vaccine roll-out kicks in.
Attitudes towards the Government are improving, just…
Taking everything into account, which, if any, of the following words best describe your feelings about the Government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak? (Please select up to four)
But there are challenges too. These findings suggest the public expect the Government to maintain investment in infrastructure and services. And, surprisingly, this data shows a significant number of older people, and as many as a quarter of Conservative voters, back the idea of taxing more, borrowing more and spending more at this Budget.
And there are surprising levels of support for increased tax, borrowing and spending – including among older people, and a quarter of Conservative voters
Q16. On 3 March, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will set out his Budget Statement for the year ahead. Since the pandemic began the Government has spent hundreds of billions of pounds on major initiatives including extra support for the NHS, the vaccine programme, the furlough scheme, and business support schemes. But this spending has also significantly increased public debt. Now some people say it’s time to reduce spending on public services and increase taxes to pay off the UK’s debts. Others argue taxes should NOT be increased to help drive growth. In broad terms, do you think Chancellor and the Government should:
We have reported before growing tensions within the Conservative Party itself between longstanding MPs and the 2019 red wall intake over the future direction of the Party. These findings throw more light on the drivers of those tensions and indicate we are only at the beginning of that debate. They suggest the Chancellor will be caught between colleagues who expect their record for fiscal discipline to be maintained, and those who demand a focus on continued investment and spending. And while this Budget will be a first staging-post as the Government works to move past the Pandemic and focus on the economic recovery, November’s will mark the moment where the Chancellor must balance those demands.
The risk for big businesses, is they will be looked to as the solution.
These findings reveal support among the public for taxing large businesses and the wealthiest in society. And, we see majority support among Conservative voters for the idea that those businesses who have profited most during the pandemic should be the target of a windfall tax.
At the same time, this data reinforces previous guidance for businesses seeking to win Government support – they should create jobs. This expectation is particularly acute among Conservative voters.
The public’s expectations of businesses seeking taxpayer support are also clear: create jobs, pay tax
Which of the following, if any, do you think should be the priority for any businesses seeking taxpayer support?
