The Long Road Back
This essay is part of our New Year's series on what to expect in 2025, and can be downloaded as one compiled PDF for you to read at your leisure via the download form. Thank you
By James Starkie, Partner at 5654 & Company
The Conservative Party selected its first leader in opposition for nearly two decades in 2024. The last time a leader was chosen out of power was back in December 2005. David Cameron, remember him? Cameron became Prime Minister but was the Conservatives’ fourth leader since losing power in 1997. The first of those, William Hague, performed well in Parliament but never cut through with the public. His successor, Iain Duncan Smith, never made it to an election. And Michael Howard was essentially elected as a placeholder as the party sought to work out how it could get back into power.
Conservative MPs will inevitably look to history to predict what kind of leader Kemi Badenoch may be. Her strengths are seen to be an ability to land a soundbite that cuts through with the public. One national radio presenter told 5654: “Whenever she is on, viewers want to hear more, whether they disagree with her or not”. And this is rare. Her detractors say she is too keen to pick a fight and lacks depth in policy terms. “You can’t win an election talking about toilets” is how one veteran Conservative strategist puts it.
Badenoch is now assembling her team. Lee Rowley, the former MP, will be her Chief of Staff and closest adviser. Incoming is also a former Special Adviser to Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, Henry Newman.
While none of these people, nor Kemi herself, can be said to be staunch One Nationers (broadly on the left of the Conservative Party), it was notable that she lacked significant support from the right of the party during the leadership election.
Her opponent, Robert Jenrick, had this support. Responding to the threat of Nigel Farage, he pursued a direct attack approach and aped many of Reform’s policies, notably their flagship policy of leaving the ECHR. In private, Badenoch leans toward leaving the ECHR but feels the battle has not been won and doesn’t want to see the Conservative Party, and her leadership, defined by this issue. Her team also believe it’s too early to be policy-focused and that this is the wrong approach to win back trust from the electorate.
The New Year will see the launch of various policy commissions, likely to involve a number of former MPs. Simon Clarke, the former Levelling Up Secretary under Liz Truss, will take a leading role in this process and Badenoch is said to want to include people like Ben Houchen, the Tees Valley mayor, in the rebuild and policy agenda. She asked him to be Shadow Deputy Leader but he turned down the role. Houchen is himself currently considering standing down from the Lords to run as an MP. It’s unlikely he’d do this to sit on the backbenches.
The first big test for Badenoch will be local elections in May. The Tories are likely to suffer considerable seat and council losses - the last elections were held in much better times for them. 18 of 21 councils up for grabs are currently Conservative run. The likelihood is that Reform will see significant gains in councillors. One Reform source told 5654: “we’ll surpass 100 councillors without even lifting a finger so we’re likely to see more than that”.
Meanwhile, current MPs are having to re-learn the art of opposition, the vast majority having never experienced it. No civil service to provide policy advice and briefings, some fairly green press officers to manage the media as well as a lack of money all create new challenges.
Considering this and the fact we’re four years away from a general election, there may be a temptation for businesses to ignore the Conservatives. This would be wrong. While they won’t top your stakeholder list, the official opposition will shape the public debate on certain issues as they start to develop policies. For example, Badenoch believes in climate change but is a sceptic around much of the policy - to the electorate, her views could make parts of the Government’s policy agenda appear extreme by comparison.
Select committees can shape policy and debates too. And it’s notable that one of the first inquiries chaired by a Conservative MP will focus on how our regulators behave, whether they are delivering value for money and working for the benefit of the country. An agenda that matters to the Government’s growth mission, and businesses’ licence to operate.
Badenoch’s Conservatives have a long way to go. The new leader may be a Hague or an IDS, but there is an outside chance she may also be a Cameron. However damaged, the Conservatives are the official opposition. De-prioritise, but do not ignore.