The Switchers and the Undecideds

The Switchers. Who’s changing their vote?

With the national polls indicating a Labour resurgence, 5654 & Company wanted to understand the extent to which voters are switching allegiances, are wavering and remain undecided or will not vote for anyone. We asked voters about their past, present, and future voting intentions to understand who has changed their allegiance.

Approximately 10% of poll respondents who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 say they would vote Labour if a general election was held tomorrow:

Conservative-Labour swing voter profile breakdown

•       54% of Con-Lab swing voters are over the age of 45 (45-54: 20%, 55-64: 17%, 65+: 17%)

•       56% are female

•       The largest proportion of Con-Lab swing voters live in South-East and South-West England (17% and 16% respectively).

•       77% are educated below degree level

•       97% are white

•       52% are in full time work, 10% work part time and 20% are retired

•       37% own their home outright, 37% have a mortgage and 25% rent

•       59% voted Leave in the EU Referendum. 33% voted Remain

Significantly, 64% of these Con-Lab swing voters had also voted Conservative in the 2017 election when the party was led by Theresa May.

The largest proportion to Con-Lab swing voters live in the South-East of England (outside London), South-West England, and the East of England (17%, 16% and 14% respectively). Significantly, there are noticeably fewer switchers in the West and East Midlands, and the North-East, which were famously dubbed the ‘Red Wall’ during the 2019 election.

59% of these Con-Lab switchers voted Leave in the EU referendum, compared to 33% who said they voted Remain.

The Undecideds. Who’s still to decide?

Historically, polls have tended to narrow as the election approaches. For example, in 1997, by the end of the first week of the campaign, Labour had a 22% lead. This had narrowed to 16% on the eve of election. In the end, Labour’s lead was 13%.

A significant number of voters make up their minds nearer the election – if not during the campaign or on election day itself. Theresa May was riding high in the polls mid-campaign in 2017, and her poll lead only began to unravel after publication of her manifesto and the ensuing confusion about proposed changes to adult social care. According to the BBC, as late as November 2019 (ie: mid-campaign during the last General Election) 13% of voters remained undecided.

Now, our opinion research helps reveal the profile of those who are currently undecided:

14% of poll respondents are undecided about who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow.

Profile of undecided voters:

• 62% are over the age of 45

• 63% are female

• 41% live in the South and East of England but outside London

• 74% are educated below degree level

• 92% are white

• 41% voted Conservative in 2019, (14% couldn’t remember).

• 36% voted Conservative in 2017, (21% couldn’t remember)

• 39% rent, 38% own outright, 20% have a mortgage

• 37% full time work, 13% part time, 28% retired

• 42% voted Leave. 27% voted Remain

• 67% of this group say themselves they are very likely to vote

With an older age profile: 46% aged over 55, and 92% defining themselves as White, and 74% educated below degree level, as well as 42% voting Leave, (seriously outweighing the 27% voting Remain); our findings suggest that the bulk of undecided voters are likely to be shy or timid Tories.

Similarly, our analysis found that regions where there are currently higher numbers of undecided voters - namely the South-East of England (outside Greater London); the South-West, the East of England, Yorkshire & Humberside – are those where the Conservatives had previously enjoyed a strong vote share.

The majority of these undecided voters (67%) say they will vote at the next General Election. Since a majority appear to share the profile, or have characteristics of former or ‘Shy’ Tories, this presents a challenge for Starmer, and an opportunity for Sunak.

Over the next twelve months, all the parties will be competing to develop policy both to engage their supporters, consolidate their bases and to attract these waverers.