What’s Driving The Summer Budget?
Tomorrow, the Chancellor will outline a series of financial interventions in an attempt to kick-start the UK economy following the lockdown. Data published over recent weeks has shown the perilous state of the economy – consumer spending down, investment down, jobs being lost and more at risk.
But Budgets and economic statements are based on public opinion as well as economic data – and this Government spends more time than any before understanding how the public feel and what they expect.
Ahead of tomorrow’s statement 5654 & Company conducted private polling with Deltapoll to better understand current public opinion and some of the political drivers behind the measures which will be announced tomorrow. While only a snapshot, the conclusions underline the Government’s political strategy and can help inform your own communications.
Perhaps most striking, the lockdown has already negatively affected the majority – either directly or in perception terms as close friends and family are impacted by the health and economic consequences of the pandemic.
But it is the economic impacts which have been felt far more broadly in just a few short months. And while short term fears stay focused on the virus, the public are beginning to focus on the longer-term economic dangers.
This data indicates that on the economy a consensus may be emerging about the need for action by businesses and Government, and where it should be focused: Creating jobs and skills, backing communities and investing for the future. On these issues there is little divergence of opinion along political or tribal lines.
As we know, the values and beliefs which motivate us as voters and consumers go beyond economic factors alone. But in terms of tomorrow’s statement this data shows there may be an opportunity for the Chancellor to begin to galvanise public support around a national economic strategy.
We believe the same opportunity exists for businesses to demonstrate the value they create and earn reputation.
Key findings include: (more detail is included in the attached presentation)
After just three months of lockdown, a majority say close friends and family have been impacted by ill-health or redundancy / reduced hours or pay and among those who say they have been negatively impacted during lockdown, the majority are significantly more likely to have suffered economically.
Thinking about how the COVID-19 pandemic (also called ‘the coronavirus’) has affected your close friends and family, which of the following statements come closest to your own view?
Despite the scale of these impacts, over the next 12 months the majority remain focused on the health impacts of the virus (56%). But there is a shift in focus coming – when asked to think about the next five years, the public now report they are more concerned about the economic impacts (49%) than health effects (37%). This is a notable switch in opinion since mid-May.
From what you know, which of the following will be the greater problem facing this country over the next 12 months
From what you know, which of the following will be the greater problem facing this country over the next 5 years
This data reveals that, so far, those most likely to say they have been impacted economically come from higher income brackets, be aged 25-34 and women are more likely to have been affected than men.
Thinking about how the COVID-19 pandemic (also called ‘the coronavirus’) has affected you personally, which of the following statements comes closest to your own view?
I have NOT been seriously ill with the virus, but I have been negatively affected by the economic changes (for example job loss, lower pay, fewer hours)
Nobody close to me has been seriously ill or died from the virus, but somebody close to me has been negatively affected by the economic changes (for example job loss, lower pay, fewer hours)
There appears to be a consensus building across regions and social groups around the need to protect and create jobs, back British businesses and suppliers and invest for the future. To deserve support from Government through the recovery there is a notable expectation on businesses being able to demonstrate continued investment in the UK, and in UK workers, suppliers and communities.
By comparison, other priorities including tackling the climate emergency in its own right receive much less support.
Which of the following, if any do you think should be the priority for any businesses seeking taxpayer support?
Protect jobs and skills: Protecting existing jobs and creating new jobs (38%), Investing in skills and training (14%)
Back Britain: Pay full tax on the profits made in the UK (25%), Be British owned and run (23%)
Good corporate behaviour: Defer any bonus payments to executives or staff to retain cash for future investment (19%), Not paying dividends to shareholders in order to retain cash for future investment (15%), Have a transparent 5-year business plan demonstrating potential for growth (11%)
Backing communities: Prioritising the hiring of British workers and UK suppliers (24%), Investing in and supporting local communities where the businesses operate (16%), Investment outside of London and the South East (10%)
Tackle climate change: Acting to tackle climate change and reduce the environmental impact of the business (10%)
Invest in the future: Investment in new ideas and research & development (7%), Defer any bonus payments to executives or staff to retain cash for future investment (19%), Not paying dividends to shareholders in order to retain cash for future investment (15%)
There is clear support for tax cuts to stimulate consumer spending; for the priorities set out in the PM’s speech last week (building new schools and hospitals, funding apprenticeships and in-work placements); and for the levelling up agenda.
Thinking about the longer term, which of the following do you think should be the priority for the government in order to help re-build the economy after the pandemic, if any? Please select up to three.
Whole UK view
Redwall voters vs Rest of UK
Deltapoll interviewed 1,549 British adults online between 2nd – 3rd July 2020. The data have been weighted to be representative of the British adult population as a whole.